Sterling Archer · @ShawnMcElhinney
8th May 2023 from TwitLonger
Presidential Nomination and Election Early Polling Accuracy From 1940-2020...
I have seen no shortage of recourse to early election polling by those who have not attended many political rodeos. Certainly in 2023, Donald Trump has been dominating early Republican polling, this is not even debatable really. And while early polling may not be completely worthless; at the same time, it is hardly to be considered trustworthy as a barometer of accurate electoral prognostication.
I have pointed this out in a number of tweets but never addressed it in too much depth. This posting will provide more of a sketch to illustrate the folly of relying on early polling. Before I get to the meat of this note, I should define my terms. By "early polling" I refer broadly to any polling that takes place prior to the start of primary/caucus season in the year prior to a presidential election.
Having clarified this point, let us now consider some historical examples of early polling for party nominations, presidential general elections, and sometimes both. Without further ado...
--In 2015, Donald Trump was at 1% in Republican polls.
--In 2007, Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Senator Hillary Clinton were leading in Republican and Democratic polls respectively.
--In 2003, Senator Joe Lieberman was leading in Democratic polling and was the early nomination frontrunner.
--In 1991, Governor Mario Cuomo was dominating Democratic polling and was the early nomination frontrunner. Meanwhile, Governor Bill Clinton was in single digits in Democratic polling and President George Herbert Walker Bush was cruising to reelection in polls over Governor Cuomo.
--In 1987, Gary Hart was dominating Governor Mario Cuomo in Democratic polling while Governor Michael Dukakis was at 1%.
--In 1979, President Jimmy Carter was leading Governor Ronald Reagan in polling.
--In 1975, Senator Ted Kennedy was dominating Democratic polling as the early nomination frontrunner with roughly twice the support of second place Governor George Wallace. Governor Jimmy Carter was at 1% in Democratic polls.
--In 1971, Senator Edmund Muskie was dominating Democratic polling and was the early nomination frontrunner.
--In 1967, President Lyndon Johnson was still above 50% in polling and was going to be reelected. He refused to run again the following year.
--In 1963, Governor Nelson Rockefeller was dominating Republican polling and was the early nomination frontrunner.
--In 1959, Governor Adlai Stevenson was dominating Democratic polling and was the early nomination frontrunner.
--In 1951, Senator Robert Taft was dominating Republican polling and was the early nomination frontrunner.
--In 1947, Governor Thomas Dewey was beating President Harry Truman in polling.
--In 1939, New York District Attorney Thomas Dewey was dominating Republican polling handily, had dominated polling since 1938, and Wendell Willkie was not even 1% in polls.
So since the dawn of modern polling in 1936, there have been twenty-two presidential elections. Of those elections, in fourteen of them, the leader of at least one of the major political parties in the year prior was either (i) not elected president the following year or (ii) not the nominee of their party in the presidential contest the following year. In simple math, that is a 63% rate of prediction failure of early polling on at least half of the eventual presidential tickets!
What is to be learned from these lessons of nomination and election where early polling is concerned? Simple: relax. The game has not started yet and early polling is highly overrated.