BIOTECH · @_B_I_O_T_E_C_H_
29th Oct 2021 from TwitLonger
Cantor: analysis suggests ranges of $45-53 /share
Thoughts on Recent $AUPH Stock Moves Related to
M&A in the Press
Aurinia (AUPH) shares have been moving up significantly over the past few months, but
especially since the Bloomberg arcle on Oct 22 that Bristol Myers (BMY, NC) approached
AUPH about an acquision. The shares have risen ~36% (vs. 1.3% for the NBI) since that
arcle was released, and they are at all-me highs. Addionally, in the past six months,
the shares have risen ~148%, although we think the inial recovery was driven by beer
launch trends and some speculaon that, at those valuaons, M&A could occur.
We think a potenal BMY acquision based on the company's clinical and development
profile makes sense. LUPKYNIS is the focus asset here for AUPH and was a drug approved
for lupus nephris as of Jan 22, 2021. We know that there is roughly a 5050 split between
nephrologists and rheumatolgists who treat these paents. BMY has a rheumatology sales
force that markets Orencia. The company also has pipeline assets like deucravacinib
(TYK2), iberdomide (cereblon modulator), and branebrunib (BTK), so it is certainly
invested in the space. In BMY's comments on the 3Q earnings call, the company noted it
has financial flexibility and that business development remains a priority. Of course, it was
a general reference, so there is not a direct read to AUPH.
We also think that other companies could be interested in AUPH that have
rheumatology, nephrology, or both commerical franchises. In our view, companies like
Amgen (AMGN, OW), AbbVie (ABBV, NC), JNJ (OW, covered by L. Chen), and, of course,
Otsuka (4578:Tokyo, NC) could be interested in a commerical stage asset in addion
to BMY. We believe that all of these companies have commerical franchises that could
easily tuck LUPKYNIS into their marketed porolios. We have included a chart to map out
commercial products to companies on Page 4.
Our M&A DCF sensivity analysis suggests ranges of $45-53share. We think the key
queson on takeout valuaon is really how the acquirer looks at the intellectual property.
Our base case is not based on M&A. Our price target is $34share, which assumes 2027E
sales of $1.8B in the US and $504M ex-US pre-royalty, which we esmate is 12% of ex-US
sales. We also probability-adjust the revenue stream starng in 2029 to 2037 to highlight
some risk of losing the method-of-use patent. If we assumed no sales post 2030 to proxy
the cliff, our base case DCF would be $19share. Therefore, that might suggest M&A
valuaon more in the range of $30-40sh.
Intellectual property is a potenal "X factor" in this deal and would determine ulmately
what an acquirer might pay. The LUPKYNIS method-of-use patent expires at the end of
2028 in the US (the '036 patent). The drug's approval label includes a proprietary patenttailored
dosing protocol effecvely patenng the dose reducon. With the addional
patents, the company has protecon out to 2037, and the patent office did grant that it
was a unique claim.
We think inial LUPKYNIS launch trends look very good in spite of COVID, so we believe
that the ming of a change of control could make sense. It is our general view that
companies acquire products either before launch or aer a few months to see how the
launch is going. In this case, it is the laer that we would ponder. We note that new paent
scripts increased to 415 in 2Q21 from 257 in 1Q21, and as of the first week of Aug, they
were north of 800 start forms. The company has guided for 2021 revenues of $40-50M.
We esmate that, by 2027, LUPKYNIS could be a ~$2B drug in the US alone. Lupus
nephris is a market that could have a significant addressable market over me; hence, we
see the aracon to big pharmaceucal companies. In the US, roughly 100K paents are
currently diagnosed with lupus nephris. We esmate roughly 45-50% likely have acve
lupus nephris, which is 45-50K paents that would be eligible for LUPKYNIS per the label.
AUPH recieves a royalty from Otsuka in Europe, and Otsuka filed for approval in Europe
on June 25, 2021.
We think LUPKYNIS clinical acvity looks more robust than GSK's (NC) Benlysta, which
was approved in late-2020 (see our note here). Roche (RHHBY, NC) presented Ph2 data for
Gazyva for lupus nephris in 2019, and started its Ph3 trial in 2020. ct.gov suggests that the
esmated primary compleon is 2024. We don't view Gazyva as a significant competor
to LUPKYNIS, which was approved in 2021.