Raphael 'Bunnyhoppor' Peltzer · @TL_Bunnyhoppor
29th Nov 2020 from TwitLonger
Tavern Pass
I'd like to weigh in on the whole "Battle Pass Debate" with some numbers, as I don't like seeing the hostility currently expressed on my timeline and also in tweets directed at me. Also most of the numbers I have seen seemed unrealistic to me, so I thought I'd go through them myself.
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Assumptions:
In order to evaluate the system I have made a number of assumptions:
1. I looked at the Duels achievements and the Scholomance achievements. I assume that around 8800 XP are doable for a normal player in Scholomance and that someone that plays at least 1 hour a day gets a maximum of 7 wins in Duels during the entire rotation, this number increases with time spend. It turns out however that these assumptions are faily irrelevant on the economy of the system.
2. I set up 3 categories with people that play 1,2,3 and essentially made a graph for x > 3 hours played. In my opinion the new daily quests are much easier while the new weekly quests are slightly harder than the previous quests which gives slightly different quest completion ratios.
3. I assumed an old daily quests gave 57.5 gold on average, you earn 12.6 gold/hour with a 57% winrate and 9 min queue time, completely neglecting search time and either 350XP/hr or 400XP/hr in the new system. The real gold as well as XP earned should be below that due to queue time.
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Findings:
If we assume 12.5 gold per hour and 350 XP an hour a player playing 1 hr/day is worse by around 600 gold throughout the entire 4month season and would need about 18300 XP from seasonal events to gain the same amount of gold. 2hr/day and 3hr/day give a lack of 560 gold and 460 gold respectively, needing 16900 or 12000 XP from seasonal events.
If we assume that you earn either 10,20 or 30 gold and you don't always just play until you get mulitiple of 3 wins we need to deduct some amoun of those 12.5 gold. For sake of simplicity I assume a normal distribution around the centre of average gold earned with
a standard deviation of 5. After you integrate this and account for some bias where people are more likely to play if they just 1 more win, you get the following:
Playing 1 hr/day is worse by around 400 gold throughout the entire 4 month season and would need about 12500 XP from seasonal events to gain the same amount of gold. 2hr/day and 3hr/day give a lack of 290 gold and 460 gold respectively, needing 8760 or 12000 XP from seasonal events. All of this does not account for any free packs and other goodies (including a legendary!).
Now assuming 400XP an hour as announced by the devs gives the following numbers:
1hr/day short by 6500 XP or 270 gold, 2 hrs/day the system is beneficial by 8 gold :) and for 3 hrs/day it's around 50 gold and it just gets better with more play time.
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Conclusion/TLDR:
IF the new system does award 400XP/hr then only players that play 1 hr/day will actually lose gold in this system and the rewards easily make up for it and that is not considering seasonal events. Everyone that plays 2hrs/day or more will be making more gold then before.
I ASSUME here that we will be getting free XP but lose out on other goodies, earning us more gold, but mitigating the other free rewards, thus also making the new system a net gold positive for all players.
All data is compiled this excel sheet.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BsdNu70L9mj1Mz72WnNrYUc6aF0sf_oTb79qk2NhmN0/edit#gid=1137632638
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What to do now:
Keep track of the XP/hour gained and compare to the 400XP/hr estimate we heard before.
Stop harassing HS streamers and personalities.
Personally, I want as many people as possible to play the game I love playing, so advocate for a more accessible game :)
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P.S. I think with mid-seasons expansions it would be reasonable if XP gain would be increased to not increase the cost of HS further, so that people can craft the most important mid-season cards when they come out. As a competitive player I am looking forward to having even more content, but I want everyone in our community to be able to enjoy the content without having to dig deeper in their pockets. HS should be more affordable than it is.