James Brennan · @JambreHS
4th Jan 2018 from TwitLonger
I wrote a guide to unstable evolution with lots of percentages
Hey all, this is a guide to making the most out of unstable evolution turns.
Unstable evolution guide:
When using unstable evolution you should be trying to achieve a few things:
-Get the most increase in stats for your mana cost
-Prevent removal/value trades from opponent
-Find taunts/chargers
The biggest stats aren't always the best, a board of two 2/4s might be better vs aggressive decks than one one 10/10. Regardless, below is a guide to making the most out of your evolves stat-wise.
Stats:
The average 2 drop is 1.8a/2.3h with the most often occuring statlines being 2a (51%) 1a (24%) 3a (15%) //// 2h (41%) 3h (24%)
The average 3 drop is 2.5a/3.1h with the most often occuring statlines being 3a (36%) 2a (33%) //// 3h (39%)
The average 4 drop is 3.1a/3.8h with the most often occuring statlines being 3a (37%) //// 3h (26%), 4h(29%)
The average 5 drop is 3.8a/4.7h with the most often occuring statlines being 4a (27%), 5a(27%) //// 5h(27%), 4h(23%), 6h(19%)
The average 6 drop is 4.8a/5.2h with the most often occuring statlines being 5a (32%) 4a (28%) //// 5h (36%)
The average 7 drop is 5.3a/5.8h with the most often occuring statlines being 5a (34%) 6a (25%) //// 6h (34%) 5h (29%)
The average 8 drop is 6a/7h with the most often occuring statlines being 8a (23%) 7a (23%) 6a (19%) //// 8h (27%) 7h (27%)
The average 9 drop is 5.3a/8h with the most often occuring statlines being 5a (21%) 4a (21%) //// 8h (26%)
The average 10 drop is 8.7a/9.4h with the most often occuring statlines being 12a (27%) //// 12h (27%)
The conclusions to draw from this are:
Assuming an 'average' starting minion it's best to do single upgrades from 7>8, followed by 4>5 or 5>6. The best performing upgrade is from 9>10 but this is because 9 drops suck and you only have them from upgrading 8>9 in the first place
The best double upgrades are 8>10, 4>6, 6>8. Avoid upgrading 7>9, or 5>7.
Upgrading a single 0/2 totem to a 2 drop will yield the best attack boost on average.
As a rule for stats - Avoid finishing evolves on 7 or 9, finishing on 4 isn't as bad but not preferred. Evolve your totems once into 2 drops. 10 drops yield the best stats but have high variance. 8 drops have great effects.
Dragonfire potion:
If you want to evolve your board into minions with >5hp or are resistant (divine shield/deathrattles that leave minions/dragons) the chances are:
2 drops 8/102 (8%)
3 drops 15/143 (10%)
4 drops 30/127 (24%)
5 drops 33/97 (34%)
6 drops 32/70 (46%)
7 drops 24/38 (63%)
8 drops 24/26 (92%)
9 drops 17/23 (74%)
10 drops 10/11 (90%)
11+ 100%
Anduin:
If you want the chances to evolve minions with less than 5 attack, with 4 attack being ideal:
2 drops <5 102/102 (100%) //// 4 atk 3/102 (3%)
3 drops <5 138/143 (97%) //// 4 atk 14/143 (10%)
4 drops <5 110/127 (87%) //// 4 atk 29/127 (23%)
5 drops <5 64/97 (66%) //// 4 atk 26/97 (27%)
6 drops <5 30/70 (42%) //// 4 atk 20/70 (29%)
7 drops <5 8/38 (21%) //// 4 atk 5/38 (13%)
8 drops <5 7/26 (27%) //// 4 atk 5/26 (25%)
9 drops <5 10/23 (43%) //// 4 atk 5/23 (22%)
10+ drops 0%
For Anduin it's often best to hope they don't have it,
But if you have a hard read or want to play around it, you should evolve your board up to 4 or 5 mana and then stop, then use your remaining evolves to push a 5+ attack minion towards 9 mana, stopping when you hit a 4 or less
Psychic scream on 7:
3 mana 1/143 (0.7%)
6 mana 1/70 (1.4%)
Fuck this card.
Taunts:
2 drops - 8/102 (8%), they are chunky for their cost (friendly bartender can heal for 1)
3 drops - 12/143 (8%) again quite chunky (benevolent djinn can also heal for 4)
4 drops - 12/127 (10%) a few lowrolls (chillblade champion/priest of feast can also heal you)
5 drops - 14/97 (14%) green jelly only creates a 1/2, abomination can still lethal you
6 drops - 11/70 (16%) a few 5hp ones but all fairly big butts
7 drops - 5/38 (13%) all >6hp, tar lord has 11hp!
8 drops - 6/26 (23%) alakir also has charge, lich king/tirion very strong cards (rag lightlord can sometimes heal you as well)
9 drops - 6/23 (26%) other than ozruk, 9 drops have the best/stickiest taunts of any mana cost
10+ drops - there are none!
Best chance for taunts are upgrading to 8 or 9.
Chargers:
2 drops - 1/102 (1%), just bluegill warrior for 2 damage
3 drops - 1/143 (0.7%), just wolfrider for 3 damage
4 drops - 3/127 (2.5%) 2, 3 and 4 damage
5 drops - 3/97 (3%) 2, 6 and 5 damage. If you get tundra rhino you can start evolving your other minions for beasts which will charge! Doomguard can often value trade before evolving again.
6 drops - 2/70 (3%) 5 and 6 damage. Argent commander can often value trade before evolving again
7 drops - none!
8 drops - 3/26 (11%) Al akir for 3x2, charged devilsaur for 7 and grom for 4. all 3 can often value trade before evolving again
9 drops - 1/23 (4%) KRUSH!!!
10+ drops none!
Even though there are no 7 drop chargers, it is better to upgrade from 6>7>8 than to upgrade another minion from 4>5>6
Highrolls:
At certain mana costs there are some highroll cards that benefit greatly from you evolving into them first before you do your other evolves. These include:
3 mana Questing adventurer
4 mana Priest of the Feast, Violet Teacher, Wicked Witchdoctor
5 mana Lyra, Red mana wyrm
6 mana Auctioneer, Illidan
7 mana Antonidus
Lowrolls:
2 mana Lorewalker Cho
9 mana Mayor Nogenfogger
When planning your evolve turns try to move through the highroll mana costs first, and then the lowroll mana costs last (if you plan to go through them)
There are also a few cards you may not want to finish on, these include 8 mana anomalous; 4, 5, 7 mana 1/1s and some other cards that you may want to evolve out of so keep that in mind when planning your turns!