Radu Dima · @G2Rdu
14th Feb 2017 from TwitLonger
Analysis of Game 5 vs Pavel Deciding Turn
So after the intense series I had against Pavel in the Kinguin for Charity tournament I went for a run to clear my mind and like the big nerd that I am i replayed most of the series in my head(yes, I have a good memory when it comes to these kind of things) to find potential mistakes that I made and that could've lost me the series. I think I played very well for the most part in the first 4 games but there was a turn in the last game of the tournament that struck me. Most people affirmed after the tournament that Pavel was super lucky with the taunt into perfect kazakhus potion into reno but I had a line that would give me a higher % to win the game and I didn't take it.
Picture of the turn: https://gyazo.com/a85f9e1dc76bc399082911a38787d6d6
What we can note about this turn is that if he doesn't have Reno he probably loses anyways so I should try to maximize my chances of killing him before Reno to play around him having it.We can also note that no matter the play, he can not play any AOE since if he does he won't have mana to play anything else and I will kill him in 2 turns no matter what(kazakhus aoe excluded). The only sure thing about this turn is that the weapon always kills the taunt; other than that, I could either patches+first mate+hero power to deal 4+6+3 secure damage over 2 turns; I could leeroy face finley face to deal 7+5 damage over 2 turns while leaving myself the option of utilising my mana better and therefore being able to use a potential damage topdeck to deal more; I could leeroy face finley into a whelp to maximize damage while putting him in a spot where he needs kazakhus into perfect potion to both kill leeroy and get himself out of range. I went for the play that maximizes damage but uses mana poorly because I wanted to play around him having refreshment vendor but here's the catch: If he had refreshment vendor he would've always played it last turn instead of the second rate bruiser, keeping the coin and insta-winning with reno the following turn if I can't kill him. Basicly against anything else, missing 1 damage to play around an insane kazakhus potion while I could read that he didn't have vendor in hand was the play that could've won me the game, offering myself the chance of drawing one of the following cards to get more damage:1 deckhand, 2 heroic strike, 1 bash, 2 korkron, 1 mortal strike, 2 arcanite reaper which were only a bit under 50% of my remaining cards. Playing leeroy and trading finley would into the whelp would also make me lose against kazakhus aoe+armor potion even with a damage topdeck and no play would be able to beat kazakhus into revive bruiser+armor/aoe so the winning line was leeroy into full face and give myself a good chance of winning even if he has the perfect hand and the perfect outcome out of the kazakhus potion. What happened is he topdecked vendor which would've punished me 60% of the time for making that play but that topdeck vendor would only happen like 1/20 times so giving myself roughly 40% to win against perfect kazakhus potion was a play I should've made. I topdecked korkron so i would've won with that line. Obviously it's a very hard to see and to analyse play(took me like 3000 characters lol) but it's the kind of play that I want to train myself to see during the game in the 2 minutes I have per turn when I am in peak form!
That said, I am happy with the tournament run and I will continue to improve constantly and hopefully I'll get rewarded for my work later this year; GG's to Pavel again and congrats on yet another tournament victory!
Tl;Dr: I could sacrifice 1 point of damage over 2 turns to give myself a roughly 40% chance of getting more damage from the topdeck which would allow me to play around kazakhus into the best potion(other than revive taunt+armor which i'd lose to anyways), play which was only bad to refreshment vendor which I could read he doesn't have since he would've played it the turn before if he did have it (picture: https://gyazo.com/a85f9e1dc76bc399082911a38787d6d6)
Thanks for reading :)