Liquid Biopsy · @Liquid_Biopsy
16th Jun 2016 from TwitLonger
CreditSuisse Reads from $GLPG Galapagos R&D Day to $VRTX
■ Yesterday we attended the Galapagos R&D day. Our take as it relates to
Vertex: Ultimately we think the Galapagos programs remain early to tell if
they will be meaningful competitors to Vertex. We continue to view Vertex as
the dominant player in the cystic fibrosis space and don’t view the Galapagos
programs as a major threat for now. Vertex is ahead of Galapagos on
timelines for seeing triplet data in patients and we continue to think
enrollment could pose a challenge for Galapagos. We are monitoring the
Galapagos programs and expect them to release their first data in CF
patients in the second half of this year from potentiator ‘1837 (competes with
Kalydeco) after four weeks of dosing.
■ We think the clinical story is the key driver of upside for Vertex and we
think we could begin to see this pan out in 2017. In 2017 we are
expecting data from next generation corrector VX-661, most importantly in
the F508del heterozygote population which Orkambi and Kalydeco are not
indicated for. At 100% to expansion into the heterozygote (or ‘hetmin’)
population our Vertex DCF is $143/sh vs. $80/sh at 0% success so we think
success here is important.
■ Vertex is ahead on triplet timelines and we expect them to move the
triplet into patients in 2H16 for data in late 2017-2018. Galapagos plans to
move into patients in their triplet combination in the second half of 2017 vs.
Vertex which is moving into patients with their triplet in the second half of this
year. Vertex is currently in Phase 1 trials in VX-152 and VX-440 both next
generation correctors to combine with VX-661 and Kalydeco in the second
half of this year for triplet studies in healthies. We think Vertex has a wide
array of assets that positions them well competitively in the CF space long
term.
■ We will get the first Galapagos CF clinical data in patients later this year, but we
think it will be too early to make a read after four weeks of dosing. We are
expecting data from Galapagos’s potentiator ‘1837 (same CF subpopulation as
Kalydeco) in the second half of this year (SAPHIRA study). Dosing is just for four
weeks so we don’t think we can make much of a read from this data. Longer term,
Galapagos plans to move into patients with a triplet combination (‘1837 or ‘2451
potentiator and two correctors) in 2H 2017. We note that Galapagos has not fully
decided on which assets will be used in the triple combination.