Average Hourly Earnings Calendar Quirk
With NFP on Friday I decided to revisit the Calendar Quirk (CQ) that seems to affect Average Hourly Earnings (AHE). See @boes https://twitter.com/boes_/status/705755387757256704
I classify a month as having a Calendar Quirk (CQ) if the 12th falls on a Friday, Saturday or Sunday.
To the degree that this CQ affects AHE, we need to also look at the previous month since it sets the baseline for the Month over Month (MoM) calculation.
Doing so we have positive, neutral and negative biased months. Positive biased months do not have a CQ in current month but did have one in the previous month. Neutral biased months occur when current month has the same calendar profile as the previous month, ie both CQ or neither CQ . Negative biased months have a CQ in current month but did not have one in the previous month.
I looked at the data beginning in April 2009 and the results were as follows:
For positively biased months average was 0.29%
For no bias months average was 0.17%
For negatively biased months average was 0.04%
April 2016 is a positively biased month so odds of a strong MoM AHE are higher. I am expecting a 0.4% print.