A brief introduction to @Bets4Value professional #tipster service

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS SERVICE IS AIMED TOWARDS PROFESSIONAL BETTORS. THIS IS A HIGH-TURNOVER, HIGH VARIANCE SERVICE AND I DO NOT RECOMMEND IT FOR THE CASUAL PUNTER.

A little bit about this service:
Well, first of all I think I'm different because I'm honest. I'm not saying that you can't trust anyone in a sportsbetting world full of touts, however in my 20+ years of betting I have hardly come across a professionally run service - I can remember Russell Clarke's horse racing service (retired) and Matt Love (On The Oche & Football Elite) as probably the only decent tipsters (out of approx. 100 tipping services I have been following).

I REALLY want to make a difference here! I hope I can show you that it IS possible to be both honest AND profitable. I want this service to be a cornerstone in your punting life!

I will provide betting tips for soccer, ice hockey and basketball. The service is covering 81 soccer leagues, 14 ice hockey leagues and 5 basketball leagues (if you are interested on the specific leagues please drop me a line).

The approach is 100% objective and all bets are generated by a statistical model with no manual interference at all - so 100% reproducible. The method has been backtested over 5 years (2010 - 2014). I have applied a Monte Carlo simulation (1000 iterations) to a sample of 4242 bets to derive possible largest drawdowns, etc. Here are the results (please note that only 57 leagues (out of the 100 currently offered) have been included in the backtests, so the actual turnover will be almost double).

# TESTING PERIOD: 2010 - 2014
# NUMBER OF BETS: 4242
# STAKING PLAN: KELLY
# TURNOVER: 20519 pts
# AVG. PROFIT: 1180 pts
# AVG. ROI: 5.75%
# AVG. LARGEST DRAWDOWN: 486 its


I could say anything here of course, but the historical performance doesn't actually matter anyway (see below)! The model itself is robust and it's not really the decent sample size that makes me very confident, but rather that it consistently beats the closing price (which is a very good indicator of +ev bets). I have also tested the system live over a 1 year period (approx. 1450 bets) with similar results. All bets have been recorded to pinnacle opening prices.

Selections are in highly to moderate liquid markets (match bets 1X2 only), so not a problem getting on even with decent stakes (I will cap the number of subscriptions however if I see the prices moving too fast). Number of bets will be approx. 1500 per year, average price approx. 5/1. Advised staking plan is kelly, however level staking is also possible with similar performance. Stakes are advised on a scale from 1 to 10, advised bank is 1000 pts. An active pinnacle account is the only thing you need (you could well add another 3 or 4 books though to boost the profits).

As you can probably already see from the average price this service is aimed towards professional bettors or at least punters with some experience. It's a high-turnover, high-variance service.

Speaking of professional there is one thing that is REALLY important for me: I would like my TRUE SKILL to be measured and not be judged by the raw performance alone (# of bets/ROI). I think this is vastly ignored by most verification sites/tipster reviews! I’m aware that the casual punter is almost solely 'impressed' by the raw stats, however a professionally-minded potential subscriber is almost only looking at the fact whether the tipster is actually making value bets.

The true skill can quite easily measured if one is constantly betting at higher prices than the closing price is. At the end this is what it comes down to! If a tipster is constantly making value bets (= beating the closing price) he is almost guaranteed to lock in a profit in the long run. I have recently written an article on this:
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1sohrce

Joseph Buchdahl (who some of you might know from his book 'How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar') has taken a look at the stats of my service. He mentioned: "If your average odds are 5/1, then even with 4,000 bets, a yield of 6% fails more rigorous significance tests. M p-value calculator returns a value of 0.05, implying a 1 in 20 probability it could all have happened by chance. I'm not trying to suggest it has, just to be modest about your interpretations. HOWEVER beating the SP 55% of the time over 4,000 bets is very likely to be significant."

The service is beating the closing price (bookie margin already taken into account) approx. 6.50%. So we are betting at 6.50% higher prices (on average) than the FAIR pinnacle closing price! If we keep on doing that we will quite likely be long-term profitable. It's then just a matter of grinding out the bets.

I'm currently also posting my bets on pyckio:
https://pyckio.com/i/#!account/bets4value

Accompanying to the betting tips I'm running a blog and have already posted a fair amount of hopefully interesting articles related to my service and betting overall. Also rather for professional/serious investors:
https://twitter.com/Bets4Value

A website is due to go live. It will likely be fully up and running after I have proofed 1000+ bets @Pyckio.
http://bets4value.com

If you would like to follow my selections, you have 2 options:

(1) Follow the bets on @Pyckio (with the benefit of receiving the bets through a nice app)
(2) Receive the selections directly per mail. You would then benefit of receiving the bets in real-time (once the algorithm finds a value price the bet will be automatically sent out to all recipients on the email-list). Option 1 has a delay as I have to post the bets manually (sometimes this can be quite a big delay if I'm not available).

If you opt for 2, please drop me a line at info@bets4value.com

An important thing for me that you please need to keep in mind: I'm not guaranteeing any profits nor do I want to make any promises! All I'm saying is that we have a very good chance for long-term profits...

Well then, THANK YOU for reading this (rather long text) and I hope we all have an enjoyable rollercoaster ride to profits :-)

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