Nina Illingworth · @NinaDontPlayMtG
11th Mar 2016 from TwitLonger
No, Seriously Folks: Bragging Time
Things I've got right so far:
A) Jeb Bush would choke the nomination away and would never be president (Summer 2015)
B) Hillary Clinton is still wildly unlikable and therefore vulnerable despite the primary being stacked in her favor (Oct 2015)
C) Trump has a real chance of winning the GOP nomination b/c the big money is backing a dog (Bush) (Oct 2015)
D) Populism is real and likely the defining force of the 2016 election (Nov 2015)
E) Bernie Sanders will not lose but rather gain support by using the world Socialist in his campaign - something thought impossible a mere 4 years ago when Obama ran (Nov 2015)
F) Bernie Sanders has an actual shot of winning the Democratic nomination b/c he can attract new young voters (Dec 15)
G) The polls all all wrong in the Midwest, the Heartland and the Eastern Seaboard Manufacturing districts because blue collar workers don't answer polls; establishment leads are a mirage (Dec 2015)
H) Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination (Dec 18th, or on thereabout.)
I) Bernie Sanders will be incapable of connecting with black voters after fumbling his first few engagements with the Black Lives Matter organization and due to longstanding voting blocs in the Democratic Party that will side with HRC (Jan 2016, pretty sure it was early tho)
J) Jeb Bush will Drop from the GOP Race by March (early Jan 2016)
K) Establishment support in the GOP will coalesce around Rubio and big money in the Republican Party will try to force a contested convention (Early Feb 2016, but I'm not sure this counts as much because I was wrong - I mean support DID coalesce around Rubio but he promptly had the Robo-Rubio-Repeats-Rapidly moment and it all fell apart; I could tell within 4 days there's no way the GOP would force a contested convention for Rubio. Does it count if it's Ted Cruz instead? Conflicted here.)
L) Christie will drop from the race to become Trump's Attorney General (half true so far, he's endorsed Trump) (Early Feb 2016)
M) Carson will drop from the race to become Trump's VP (half true so far, he's endorsed Trump) (Early Feb 2016, a couple days after Christie prediction and explaining why Christie would be AG when ppl said he'd be VP - specifically said it would be Carson instead.)
N) HRC will dominate the deep southern states and the south east coast but the entire Midwest, West, Northeast are up for Grabs. Specifically Bernie has a chance in Michigan, Ohio, Illinois where people previously said he had no chance - because of NAFTA. (Feb 2016)
M) Trump will win Michigan easily (Feb 2016) because of NAFTA
Yes, all of this is bragging; yes I probably missed a few and yes there are still things I predicted on my feed that haven't come up yet but may well come true:
Bernie will win Ohio. Trump will win Ohio. Illinois will be close for the Dems, Trump will win Illinois. Trump will also easily win North Carolina and he's got at least a 50/50 shot a PA too (which Bernie will win on the Dem Side).
The eventual nominee will be HRC on the Dem and Trump on the GOP sides; Clinton will be extremely vulnerable after hanging on to win the primary entirely because of Super Deligates and early voting deep southern states. The election will be absurdly close and Trump has EVERY chance of winning it, but HRC will seal the deal by such a narrow margin we'll collectively wake up the next day and be terrified at how close to utter ruin we just game - then it'll be 4 more years of open theft and disastrous foreign policy so we can do all this over again in 2020 with new ppl and more anger.
Obviously, there's more - but if you want more than a cursory summary you'll have to follow my feed; where you found this bragging letter. Nevermind.
- nina