There are 36 scenarios for each possible F4. If we assume Johnny's (potential) best-case assumptions for evicting Steve are correct, it plays out like this:

Liz HOH -
Veto winner:
Austin - evicts Vanessa
Johnny - evicts Austin
Liz - evicts Vanessa
Vanessa - evicts Austin

Austin HOH -
Veto winner:
Austin - evicts Vanessa
Johnny - evicts Liz
Liz - evicts Vanessa
Vanessa - evicts Liz

Johnny HOH -
Veto winner:
Austin - evicts Vanessa
Johnny - (leaves Austin or Liz as the vote) evicts Vanessa
Liz - evicts Vanessa
Vanessa - evicts Liz

So in 7/12 scenarios, Johnny goes to F3 with Austin/Liz, 3/12 are with Austin/Vanessa, and 2/12 are Liz/Vanessa. (Unless you think Vanessa evicts Austin over Liz at F4, but I think she thinks Austin will take her, and Johnny is less likely to take Austin than Liz)

F3: Austin/Liz/Johnny (Happens 7/12 times)
HOH winner:
Austin - takes Liz
Liz - takes Austin
Johnny - takes Liz

F3: Austin/Vanessa/Johnny (Happens 3/12 times)
HOH winner:
Austin - takes Johnny
Vanessa - takes Johnny
Johnny - takes Austin?

F3: Liz/Vanessa/Johnny (Happens 2/12 times)
HOH winner:
Liz - takes Johnny
Vanessa - takes Johnny
Johnny - takes Liz

So in 22/36 scenarios, John makes F2 in the absolute best case scenario. However, in 9 of them, he's against Austin in F2, where he almost definitely doesn't win (Goblins think Austin's playing best + twins + Vanessa + Steve has said he'd vote Liztin over John). So now he's down to 13/36 winnable scenarios, 4 of which are him vs. Vanessa in the F2 where he again likely loses (Austwins + Steve is a guaranteed four, James/Becky/Shelli/Jackie all think Vanessa has played a really good game, and only Becky might think John has played well; all it takes is one of them to vote for her. Not to mention Meg, while not a fan of Vanessa, also doesn't think John has played well). So now he's down to 9/36 winnable scenarios. Against Liz, he has Becky, probably Shelli. He doesn't have Vanessa/Austin/Julia/Steve, which means he needs all three Goblins, and if he doesn't have them, even Liz beats him. So it's a close vote, made even worse by the fact that Liztin is going to look like they're running the show if John willingly takes them to F4 over Steve. But even if we still say that Liz loses to John in all scenarios, he has a 25% chance of winning, under his best-case scenario, everything goes right formula.

If Steve stays, with John's worst-case scenario fears, at final 4, we have:

John HOH -
Veto winner:
Steve - evicts Liz
Liz - evicts Steve
Vanessa - evicts Steve
John - (leaves Steve as the vote) evicts Liz

Liz HOH -
Veto winner:
Steve - evicts John
Liz - (leaves Vanessa as the vote) evicts John
Vanessa - evicts John
John - evicts Vanessa

Steve HOH -
Veto winner:
Steve - (leaves Vanessa as the vote) evicts John
Liz - evicts John
Vanessa - evicts John
John - evicts Vanessa

Then at F3:

F3: Liz/Vanessa/John (happens 2/12 times)
HOH winner:
Liz - takes John
Vanessa - takes John
John - takes Liz

F3: Steve/Vanessa/John (happens 2/12 times)
HOH winner:
Steve - takes Vanessa
Vanessa - takes Steve
John - takes Steve

F3: Liz/Steve/John (happens 2/12 times)
Liz - takes John
Vanessa - takes John
John - takes Liz

So he makes F2 in 14/36 scenarios, four of which are against Vanessa, where he loses. So 10/36 times, he makes it to F2 in a winnable scenario (against Liz or Steve. Against Steve, he has Becky/Meg/James/Jackie locked and Vanessa/Austin/Liz/Julia have all said they'd vote for John over Steve, though Vanessa/Austin may have been lying when they said it). So 10/36 winnable scenarios under his absolute worst case scenario after keeping Steve. So given John's logic, he has a relatively even amount of chance to win going either way. The tie-breaker for him may be that he feels Austin is easier to beat in comps than Steve, but I feel that small (and unstable) advantage is balanced out by the kudos Liz gets from the jury by making it to (at least) F4 with her showmance. And I want to reiterate that this is based on the best case scenario for Steve leaving and the worst case scenario for Steve staying. The best case scenario for Steve staying massively dwarfs the best case scenario for Steve leaving. Furthermore, I don't think John's best case scenario for Steve leaving is accurate.

My predictions for Steve staying are (based on Steve thinking Vanessa is Derrick, Liztin thinking JMac can't win, and Vanessa's candies (Also, in cases where I was unsure, I favored situations that are bad for John, like whether Steve will evict Vanessa or Liz at F4):

John HOH -
Veto winner:
Steve - evicts Liz
Liz - evicts Steve
Vanessa - evicts Steve
John - (leaves Steve as the vote) evicts Liz

Liz HOH -
Veto winner:
Steve - evicts Vanessa
Liz - (leaves Vanessa as the vote) evicts John
Vanessa - evicts John
John - evicts Vanessa

Steve HOH -
Veto winner:
Steve - (leaves John as the vote) evicts Vanessa
Liz - evicts John
Vanessa - evicts John
John - evicts Vanessa


F3: Liz/Vanessa/John (happens 2/12 times)
HOH winner:
Liz - takes John
Vanessa - takes John
John - takes Liz

F3: Steve/Vanessa/John (happens 2/12 times)
HOH winner:
Steve - takes John
Vanessa - takes John
John - takes Steve

F3: Liz/Steve/John (happens 4/12 times)
Liz - takes John
Vanessa - takes John
John - takes Liz

So with this, John is in a winnable scenario 20/36 times, or roughly 55%, already more than double his best case in taking Steve out. And that's not even the best possible case. The only way the odds are even remotely close are if you believe that John can safely beat Austin in F2, and even then, his odds are still slightly better with Steve. Then, factoring in the risks involved in getting Steve out, (like Liztin keeping Vanessa over John, Vanessa believing Austin will throw F3 HOH and keeping Liztin over John, Liz taking Vanessa over John to F2 because she believes no woman has beat a man in F2, etc...) that 25% could go as low as 16%. Some of those risks also apply to the scenario where he keeps Steve, but at the very least, his range is much higher with Steve in the game.

And that's where my head's at with this choice.

Reply · Report Post