Some Thoughts on Scotland



Fifteen years ago this month, I was picking my university choices. On my list of six were two Scottish institutions. But for a fluke of A-level grades (and let's face it, when are such grades anything other than fluke?), I could have a vote this Thursday.

Back then, I thought quite a bit, in an idealistic 17-year old way, about what a move to Scotland would do to my political perspective and affiliation. The early excitement of the Labour government had worn off, devolution was a done deal and suddenly independence and the SNP seemed like an exciting prospect. I could see myself wandering happily into a mindset that could have paved a path to a Yes vote at an as then unthinkable referendum. That, surely, was the route to the sort of socialist society I wrote about and dreamed off?

As it happens, I ended up in London, a move that had more impact on my sense of identity than anything to happen in my life before or since. I am a Londoner first, a European second and a British person third. I am a proud citizen of a part of the UK which is far more divergent economically, socially and politically from the rest of the UK than Scotland is. Our economy is more internationalised than much of the rest of the country, nowhere in the UK is more proudly multicultural, we don't really vote UKIP and our ostensibly right-wing mayor can only get elected by leaving the bulk of his leftist inheritance intact. London resisted the Tories in 2010 - if by some fluke they are returned to power next year, it will be despite London, not because of it. The economy is strong and sizeable enough that we could be a perfectly successful city state. Yet I can think of nothing worse for my city.

We should seek - nay, demand - greater devolution of powers to City Hall and borough town halls. We should be unashamedly proud of London's successes. When others decry 'London' as the pit of all evil, we should bridle. But independence? A disastrous idea. And I believe that for the same reasons that I now believe Scottish independence would be misguided.

The nation state, as we know it, is dying. That is, I say without any doubts, A Good Thing. It is a construct that has led far too often to conflict, but far more often has proved itself to be an artificiality that is incapable of serving its citizens well, checking the ravages of unaccountable emergent global forces and leads to far too many policy areas being dealt with at the wrong level, rendering end results ineffective. In the face of the challenges of the twenty-first century, the nation state will continue to prove itself still more irrelevant. A construct that disempowers, not empowers. True democrats in this century will be those who empower and democratise both regions and supra-national bodies. The idea of creating a new national border in this era, except where necessary to prevent bloodshed, should be anathema.

There are many things that Scotland does better alone. Devolution had demonstrated that. There is much more that should be devolved to Holyrood. But the principle of subsidiarity suggests to me that on a small, interlinked island, there will be some things that are best and most effectively done at that level. 70% of Scotland's trade is with the rest of the UK - there would be no escaping the impact of the residual UK's economic or trading policies and standards. Under a currency union or sterlingisation, that escape is even less complete. Hundreds of thousands of Scots live in England and Wales, and vice versa - they lose much of their say over how they are treated. 15% of Scotland's economy is dependent on the price of oil, leading to a de-diversification of the economy post-independence, increasing the power over Scotland of two hydrocarbon companies. It is a remarkable contradiction of our times - a vote for independence in Scotland is a vote for less self-determination, not more, for much the same reasons that a vote for the UK to leave the EU would represent a similar reduction in self- determination in the name of 'independence'. In a post-Brexit scenario, 'Brussels' becomes far more dominant in the UK, but far less accountable. Post-independence, the same would be true with Scotland and 'London' (whatever that signifies). If I substitute high finance for hydrocarbons, I oppose independence for London for all the same reasons. There is absolutely nothing perfect about the UK state (and as a long-standing supporter of a consented united Ireland, loaded with the necessary safeguards for minorities, no-one can accuse me of UK-conservatism), but the ties within this small island are such that independence can never be more than a pleasant illusion. I want the UK to be more equitable, more socially-minded, more redistributative. But at the end of the day, I think we are better if the wealth generated in Aberdeen can flow to Abbey Wood and the wealth of the City of London can flow to Coatbridge. We don't do it enough, but reducing the potential won't speed the day when we do it more.

I could try and make a romantic case for Scotland to stay. I adore the country. My favourite places in Britain, loaded with personal importance to me, include Rothiemurchus, Hermaness, Eas a'Chual Aluinn and Grass Point. Hell,
my mother's family are Baxters and part of Glasgow's botanic garden is named after my dad's family, so I can even claim a family connection. But all that is balderdash. Those places will still be as important to me even if they aren't in the same political entity as I live in. My fear is that the Scottish people may decide to choose a false independence that will actually reduce their self-determination.

I could write screeds about the idiocy, unpleasantness and anachronism of some of the nationalist thought I have come across in this debate, but I know that represents the motivations of no more than a minority of Yes voters. This is rightly Scotland's choice and a tiny part of me craves the political excitement that would come from independence. But there are more important things than that. A Yes vote will be the start of a great, and very risky adventure, but I will wish Scotland all the best and raise a glass of Highland Park if that is
the choice they make. But I'm reasonably sure that if things had panned out differently 15 years ago, that it wouldn't have been my choice.

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