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16th Aug 2014 from TwitLonger
Future shocks
While Russian public's attention is focused on the fighting in the New Russia, on the adjacent territory of Ukraine, Kiev controlled regime deployed at least destructive processes (though not so swift). This, of course, talking about the deteriorating economic situation in the country and the growth of social tension. The major milestones of this process, we will talk in this article, in parallel trying to understand the possible consequences of what is happening. It's no secret that the standard of living of the population of Ukraine is constantly falling. Recently, the media every now and then are full of headlines about the next price increase for these or those goods and services. After analyzing these materials, we can get a fairly reliable data on how poorer every inhabitant of "independence" in the near future. Let's start with the most extensive problems that entail a whole train of smaller troubles. The most serious threat hanging over Ukraine - is the lack of funds in its budget. There is no money for anything, including the functioning of state institutions and public sector wages. Kiev government from the very beginning of his stay in power did not have other options to address the budget deficit, in addition to receiving loans from the IMF. Work in this direction and it was engaged. As a result, it was agreed to grant Ukraine a stabilization loan of $ 17 billion. Dollars. Funds were to become available in tranches every two months for two years. The first tranche, the sum of $ 3 billion. Dollars was allocated to Ukraine in May. Of course, it was accompanied by a receipt victorious reports in the media that support Kiev mode. But the jubilation was short-lived. Did not finish the allocated money, unexpectedly (for power, of course) proved to problems that experts have long been saying. The International Monetary Fund warned Ukraine that if it fails to regain control of rebel Donbas, the amount of subsequent tranches will be revised downwards. From the point of view of common sense it seems quite logical: smaller regions within the state - less costs; less expensive - less than the loan amount. It was during this period Kiev regime headed by "newly elected" president Peter Poroshenko, began to give their armed groups hysterical orders for the immediate and rapid advance in the Donbass, the complete elimination of the republics. As we know, this still did not work. But back to the topic of loans. As he tried government Yatsenuk together throughout the Verkhovna Rada and Petro Poroshenko himself to fulfill the conditions of the IMF, the second tranche of the loan has not been received in time. He was supposed to go in July, but instead, the fund sent to the Ukraine its monitoring mission in order to explore the possibility of further credit of the State. Simply speaking, the provision of subsequent tranches of the loan has been called into question. In an effort, by all means, get the coveted funds, the government began, in accordance with the requirements of the fund, significantly raise the prices of utilities. This is what we tell you more later. But even these measures failed to convince the inspectors from the IMF. At the end of the mission in Ukraine, its employees refused to announce a definite answer about the future of the promised loan. It was only after meeting with his American leadership, they are still recommended to allocate funds (albeit in a much smaller scale and at a later date). Now, the estimated amount of the second tranche of 1.4 billion. Dollars, instead of $ 3 billion., And the question of its allocation will be considered at a meeting of the fund until the end of August. This means that the money will go to Ukraine not earlier than September. Recall earlier planned that in September the fund will provide the third tranche, and its amount was to be twice as much. In fact, it is said that the IMF simply refused to Ukraine to receive the second tranche and significantly reduced the amount of the third. As we can see, the relationship with the IMF, which now depends on the budget of the State, are not flawless, and in view of the situation, the prospect of their improvement is unlikely. The consequences of a budget shortfall already quite clearly feel and ordinary citizens. For them, it is expressed primarily in raising utility tariffs. For many years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, many of us are accustomed to the fact that when on TV or in newspapers tell us about the increase of tariffs, then we are talking about a few pennies. But the current situation in Ukraine is not. On the first of July the rate for water increased by 84%, while the rate for sanitation - by 105%. In addition, gas prices for the population increased by 50%, and electricity increased by 10 - 40% (depending on the region). Together, these price increase of public services has led to the fact that, for example, the owners of two-bedroom apartment, to spend on their previously paid about 950 hryvnia per month, now will pay about 1500 hryvnia. At the same time, in pursuit of the next loan funds, the government has initiated a draft law that would allow to evict debtors from their apartments, not the cost of returning them to the selected property (formerly cost refunded, less the amount of the debt). Adoption of this bill is one of the requirements of the International Monetary Fund. However, in addition to a rise in prices for utilities in the pockets of the citizens of Ukraine hits more and headline inflation in the country. During the first half of 2014, its rate exceeded 12%. Although the summer - not the worst offender in this regard, because the summer is much cheaper vegetables included in the typical "food basket". With the onset of cold weather, the situation is much worse. In addition to food prices continue to rise and the price of gasoline. If in April the cost of different fuel grades ranged from 12 to 14 UAH, and now the prices are in the range 15 - 17 USD and the trend towards growth ceases. All of the above takes place against the backdrop of steady decline in the price of the national currency, and thus reduce the purchasing power of citizens. On indexation of wages in Ukraine and one speech does not lead. On the day of this writing, the dollar against the hryvnia at a historical high, clicking the mark of 13 UAH. And although in the near future the authorities will certainly try to keep his methods of administrative regulation, it is unlikely this can change the overall trend. For greater clarity, we give a simple example. The average salary in Ukraine - 3500 hryvnia. Before the start of a "revolution" in November 2013, at the rate of 8 USD per 1dollar it was 437 dollars. Today, at the rate of 13 USD per $ 1, the amount was reduced to $ 269. At the same time, the price of almost all consumer goods in Ukraine formed taking into account the cost of gasoline and other inputs purchased abroad for these same dollars. Therefore, expensive everything. In his speech to the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of August 12, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine Valeriy Gontareva named one of the main reasons for the rapid depreciation of the hryvnia the ongoing war in the East of the country. In response to a question by one of the deputies that when the national currency will cease to diminish in value, she asked him, when to stop fighting in the Donbas. This approach looks absolutely justified. And not just because that money likes silence. War brings Ukraine huge losses, so the question of its impact on the economy of the state, we consider in more detail. Of course, the main damage to the Ukrainian economy, the war in the Donbass, is that its maintenance is spent very heavily. The biggest problem is that the money will not return. They actually burned. But due to delay in release of the second tranche of the loan from the IMF (and in fact - his refusal to granting), the budget can and pretty soon all over the means to wage war. One day of fighting costs Ukrainian treasury 3 million. Dollars. At the same time, the Minister of Economy of Ukraine Oleksandr Shlapak, speaking in Parliament on July 21 said that the contingency fund budget (which is funded from a military operation in the East of the country) there were only 42 million dollars. For further combat operations needed disproportionately large funds. But saving is not on anything. Ukrainian army - perhaps the only one in the world in which soldiers taking part in the hostilities do not receive any "combat" (a special kind of military benefits, are in hot spots), no extra charges. Benefits survivor families of the dead soldiers also will not be paid. Comes to the fact that not even all the wounded are treated at public expense. Some of them battle wounds recorded in the medical records as a consequence of an accident, or inept handling of the weapon. This formulation denies them the right to be treated at public expense. And even with such awe austerity measures, money for the conduct of hostilities is still lacking. Under these conditions, the Kiev regime decided to resort to their usual tactics and the burden of responsibility for their own political mistakes on the shoulders of the country's population. At an extraordinary session of parliament, on 31 July a law was passed introducing for Ukrainian citizens war tax of 1.5% of revenues. The law came into force on the 3rd of August. For Ukrainian inhabitants, it means that now each earned thousand hryvnia, 15 hryvnia they will be forced to give to the military. But a devastating effect on Ukraine started its war is not limited to a waste of scarce budgetary resources. The fighting taking place in the most industrialized region of the country, resulting in destroyed almost the only industry brings her profit - heavy metals. This causes the economy enormous damage to the unfortunate state. According to experts, the decline in GDP in Ukraine in the second quarter 2014 was 4.7%. But this is not the limit. As we have already mentioned speech to the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, the Minister of Economy Alexander Shlapak predicted a fall in GDP of 6% by the end of this year. And it is worth noting that it is - one of the most optimistic forecasts, because Kiev managers tend to hide the negative results of their activities. By the way, do they plan to compensate for the decline in GDP development of small and medium-sized businesses (at least rhetorically). After a meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin, Secretary of State John Kerry even said about America's commitment to allocate funds for this purpose. True or on the date of the loan or of a specific amount of speech was not, and then the topic altogether forgotten as useless and unfulfilled. Amidst all these plausible conversations Ukrainian small and medium entrepreneurs massively close their businesses because of the increased taxes. Foreign investors have the same and did a cannon shot does not wish to approach a country with such an unstable economic and political situation, besides waging war. But as they say: "Who the war, and to whom - mother is native." In contrast to the small and medium entrepreneurs, some representatives of big business (they are the same - the oligarchs) manage to benefit financially from the ongoing military operations. For example, Dnipropetrovsk oligarch - Governor Igor Kolomoisky unopposed tender won the right to supply diesel fuel for the army to 30 hryvnia per liter, which is two times more expensive than the market value. In addition, it also supplies to the troops body armor, costing 20,000 hryvnia for 1 pcs., - Three times higher than their retail price. However, not all the oligarchs live so well. Rinat Akhmetov, not so long ago was considered the richest man in Ukraine, now suffers huge losses, due to the fact that it operates primarily concentrated in an area where hostilities are. However, considering that in addition to the plants in the Ukraine, he has also a vast assets in other countries, it is unlikely that war is able to destroy him completely. However, the oligarchs are not accustomed to forgive someone - or similar financial losses. This once again confirms the fact that this past Saturday, controlled by Rinat Akhmetov newspaper "Today" published an article writer Oles Elderberry, known for his pro-Russian views. The publication had a clearly anti-war character. The fact that in the newspaper Akhmetov began again to print such dissident as Elderberries may indicate only one thing: the contradictions in the Ukrainian oligarchic elite is growing. On that point, we gradually move to a description of how society affects the catastrophic situation in the Ukrainian economy and the civil war going, here is the fourth month. The first thing that comes to mind, it will strengthen the protests triggered by the start of the third wave of the partial mobilization. Against her serve primarily rural residents of the western regions of the country. The thing is that that's where most of the gain recruits for the armed forces, in the calculation of the high level of loyalty of the inhabitants of these regions with respect to the current government, as well as their illiteracy (which means the inability to get out of the draft with the help of various legal tricks). It is worth noting that the authorities do not even hide mobilization purposes. Officials in Kiev regime openly declare that it is held to replace losses in the armed groups fighting in the East. That's just looking at the official casualty figures, understand the need for such substitution is not possible. To date, the Kiev authorities acknowledged the death of a little more than 500 people and injured about 2,000 But the reality is at odds with the official statistics. According to data from intercepted by hackers and periodically published them on the net staff documents of the Ministry of Defence and the Security Service, the real losses already amount to more than 3,000 killed, 5,000 wounded and about 4,000 deserters. In modern conditions, it is difficult to hide the truth from the public. It still leaks, even in the most remote villages with tales of wounded soldiers returning from the front, or just rumors. At the same time, knowing the true loss of Ukrainian law enforcers, it is easy to see why residents are protesting even the most "militant" regions. No one wants to lose their loved ones in the war. In some areas, the anti-war rallies were accompanied by burning agendas and mobilization requirements, indicating the seriousness of intentions. Speaking about the processes occurring in the Ukrainian society, we can not ignore the situation with the "Maidan". On the weekend of his activists left the main square of the country. This was preceded by their "dembelsky chord", which took place on Thursday, when "maydanovtsy" burned tires, fighting off imaginary assault battalions from the "Kiev - 1" and "Kiev - 2", formed from their own "colleagues". In our view, the incident was proof assumption made by us in a previous article, that Poroshenko tries to dissolve "maidan" by bribing his formal and informal leaders. This version perfectly explains why activists on the weekends without any pressure left the area. Well, what happened on Thursday looks in this way the unit leaders attempt "maidan" bargain. However, in our opinion, do not prematurely bury "Independence." In - First, it is not gone home, but only moved from the main square of Kiev on Trukhanov Island (where they now stand camp). And in - Second, all of the above in Ukraine creates ideal breeding ground for new social upheaval. And unlike the synagogue "revolutionaries" in the city center, away from the crowds of furious, hungry and destitute people will not get bought off. By the way, in the new social explosion are likely to be actively involved, even the inhabitants of the capital. After all, to them an economic disaster in the state already operates in the most direct way: in Kiev for the second month there is no hot water. According to the mayor of the capital of Vitali Klitschko, this is due to measures to save gas, and hot water in the apartment is not served before the heating season. However, experts point out that there is no gas saved will not allow the city to heat all winter. So, this year the people of Kiev are waiting for the cold batteries and broken pipes. For uncomplicated forecast evident from the pace of development of the situation, all the problems described above, of the total budget spending, to revolt against the mobilization and frozen apartments, reached its peak in the late fall - early winter. In Ukraine, strong enough, wanting to use social discontent and displace the current government, so that a new revolution - a matter of time. Remains open only the question of who will replace the current leadership. However, due to the nature "post-revolutionary" Ukrainian society, with its abundance of disadvantaged, but armed men, as well as universal radical and even militant, it could end next Makhnovshchina with all its charms in the form of total war, robbery, looting and unfounded cruelty. But Ukraine is no stranger to the state of ruins. Anarchist rod sits in the majority of its inhabitants are much deeper alluvial all kinds of nationalism and "European values". In it the essence of the people. And until someone - from the outside will not stop this bloody orgy, no peace in the troubled land of Ukraine.
Источник: http://politikus.ru/events/27114-gryaduschie-potryaseniya.html
Politikus.ru