Deutsche London: Spot Trading Morning Report

EUR
Open 1.3628 Support 1.3570 1.3540 Resistance 1.3660

Euro trading in a tight range and caught a bit as it outperforms on the crosses despite the USD trading well. Once we get through the big 3 events this week of FOMC minutes, ECB, and NFP we should get some clarity to next direction.
Holding a short bias but keeping risk light in the Eurusd, rallies towards 1.3650 should continue to be sold

GBP
Open 1.6410 Support 1.6317 (38.2 pct of 1.5855-1.6603) Resistance 1.6484 ( hi Dec 18)

Another rangy day anticipated in cbl, 1.6340-1.6440 has held steadfast all week .
Order book favours a further compression in short dated vol.
Position wise i remain long pounds with a view of running it over tomorrows MPC decision, my concern being the outside chance of them lowering the unemployment threshold, good luck.

AUD
Open 0.8920 Support 0.8900 Resistance 0.9000

Quiet session with focus moved to CAD, AUD remains supportive under 8900 for now. Needs new news to gain any downside momentum. Regenerating bids continue to come in ahead of 8900.
Retail Trade and Building approvals, important to see how domestic economy pulse is going.
Hard to get too committed to themes ahead of Friday NFP, (also ECB and EURAUD). But seems some commitment to sell into this .90 level for now.

NZD
Open 0.8270 Support 0.8250 Resistance 0.8320

Nothing changed from yesterday. We saw demand for NZD on the crosses still from real money. But currently we stalling in the .8310/20 window. Support will remain under .8250.
Milk prices remain supportive, and interesting piece on composites outside of milk powder (cheese butter) bouncing which has been the piece that has held Fonterra back from raising payout to next level.
Kiwi remains well bid on dips, and AUDNZD still under pressure. Hard to see that trend abating just yet. NZD continued to come flying out of its dips last year, and it was interesting it did it again on day 1 this year.
Only second tier data out this week locally which means the focus remains on payrolls on Friday .

JPY

Open 105.05 Support 103.70-75 102.50 Resistance 105.00 105.50
Open 142.85 Support 141.50 Resistance 143.60 144.40


USDJPY underpinned by better US data and a recovering Nikkei. Japanese demand stands out overnight as the New Year finally feels like it is getting underway.
Encouraged by the price action and maintain bias for long USDJPY.
ADP on the docket this afternoon..

CAD )
Open 1.0815 Support 1.0740 Resistance 1.0855 1.1000

Poor IVEY purchasing data contrasted by better US data is the catalyst for a strong rally in UsdCad. Speed of the move will cause some concern as barriers around bullish structures are at risk and will reduce participants exposure to the move.
This should suggest that dips remain shallow. Next resistance mid 1.08's before psychological resistance at 1.1000..

SKANDIES

SEK
Open 8.8760 Support 8.82 Resistance 8.93


EURSEK continues to trade in a relatively narrow range 8.85-8.90 this week. Recent data has been mixed (mixed PMIs but stronger retail sales of late) though the overall picture has been one of strong forward looking indicators and softer hard data/CPI. \
The Riksbank minutes are released this morning though given the detail already in the statement and MPR released in December, there may not bee too much new information.

NOK

Open 8.4030 Support 8.35, 8.30 Resistance 8.50, 8.55

EURNOK traded in a relatively tight range yesterday though the softish data this week so far in PMI and housing continues to see EURNOK hold above likely 8.35 support.
This morning will see IP data released followed by retail sales and CPI the next two days.
Overall the picture of somewhat sluggish growth and a correcting housing market remains in place though with the next Norges Bank meeting coming in March, volatility around recent data releases may have declined somewhat. . .

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