Moscow and limits the pressure on Assad

Not the words of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's surprise, about his desire to run for a new presidential term, he repeats that since the approach of the presidential elections, but what was not expected, is the response of the Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Mikhail Bgdanov on what he said Assad, as well as the response the Syrian Foreign Ministry on Bgdanov, which raises a lot of questions.

Moscow suffered for more than a slap of the lion; first, when they gave assurances to the upper-left shows, Abdul Aziz good to return to Syria, but Assad ordered his arrest after his arrival at Damascus International Airport, and it remains unaccounted for so far. Second, you may not rule out the Russian experts at the National Security Council, to be a narrow circle around the lion, are arranged an explosion of cell crisis, which ruled codes Syrian armed forces, associated historically with Moscow, and ties to Arab and international, to enable them to play a role in the stage Post-Assad, or to have an active role in the transition phase, they may have formed the greatest threat to the authority of the family, if they implement the (palace coup) eliminates the lion and end the crisis. And third, when Moscow failed to grab any guarantees, even formality of the lion, about some of the decisions of the «Geneva 1». Add to that she had been to slap a major, after turning the limited presence of Hezbollah in Syria to direct military intervention, which, although within the stay temporarily for a lion, but it resulted in the redrawing of sizes and interests and influence, between Moscow and Tehran, the two, although a consensus opinion, however, confidence factor does not exist between them, to the satisfaction of both parties that each has different interests from the other, and they Atsabakan in order to deal with Washington, about Assad and Syria's future.

This deal is different bases between Moscow, which are interested in keeping the Syrian military, after cleared of those blood on their hands, and rebuilt in order to fight terrorism and «Al-Qaeda», and to give guarantees to its allies, the Alawites in power, and the transitional phase and the protection of Christians, and between Iran want to maintain the security of the system, which has secured a broad influence in Syria and Lebanon, a substrate on which the Assad regime, which will be exposed to greater cleansing process in the next stage in Syria.

Dealing Moscow with Assad as the last leaves of the Cold War, you do not want to lose free, after being deceived international in Libya, and lost the Gaddafi regime, has over the Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an interview with media personalities close to the Kremlin, quoted him worry some Russian elites , about the price that you would pay Moscow because of its support for Assad, but Putin said in a response to these questions, that this boy has brought to Moscow more than 15 world leaders, and for the search with the Kremlin about the future of Syria.

In remarks that did not take adequate attention, passed the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, political messages about the future of the lion, when he said, since nearly two months, that Assad needs to personal guarantees in order to leave power, summed up delegates Ross toured the capitals of the region, as relating to the International Tribunal on the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and Assad does not appear in front of the International Criminal Court on charges of genocide, and the use of chemotherapy against its citizens, as well as guarantees of safe exit for members of his family and his closest aides.

Not enough words Bgdanov latter about the future of the lion, in order to bet on the position of the new Russian from the Syrian crisis, because the decision-makers in Moscow are well aware, that Assad will not open the way for a transitional phase leading eventually to his departure from power so easily, it will not respond at all to any asked Rossi to leave, and will throw their request the wall, then you will lose Moscow's credibility before the international community, which is treated as the owner of the crucial decision, the future of Assad and his regime, but that Moscow knows very well, that the lion reclines by refusing to request, if it happens, the attitude Iranian hardliner, is based on the actual governed by the fighting fronts, and moves according to the realities imposed by the field strongly firearms Iran, Tehran, which authorizes the imposition of political conditions, are not allowed to Ross exclusivity in the Syrian decision.
http://www.aawsat.com/ Mustafa examination
* Former colleague at the Institute for International Relations - Moscow

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