FXWW888

FXWW888 · @FXWW888

25th Sep 2013 from TwitLonger

DB Spot Trading Morning Report:

EUR
Open 1.3473 Support 1.3450 Resistance 1.3520

The uncertainty post FOMC seems to be leading a bout of risk off trade seeing the market buying USD's despite a dovish Fed. Euro continues to drift slowly lower on this theme and is slipping into a low vol environment as expected.
I agree with my NY colleague Chris that seems to be running out of topside steam here, and it feels like this slow drift lower will gather more momentum later this week and fill the gap down to 1.3380.

AUD
Open 0.9386 Support 0.9315 Resistance 0.9460

Another quiet session in store today, support in the form of the 100 DMA at 0.9315 should halt any slide from here
AUDNZD buying early doors following poor data out of NZ is keeping AUDUSD stubbornly bid for now
Topside resistance comes in at 0.9460 (range highs from earlier this week)
I am square AUD here, I am struggling to identify a meaningful catalyst to get me excited today.

JPY
Open 98.75 Support 97.80 97.50(TL) Resistance 99.70-80 100.25(TL) 100.62
Open 133.05 Support 132.70 132.20(20 DMA) Resistance 134.00 135.00

USDJPY failed to trade higher even on another Japanese M&A story, Lixil to buy German Grohe for about 3 bio EUR. Market was caught long, then, weaker-than-expected IFO and lower equity weighed on USDJPY and cross-JPY.
Book-wise; Long-liquidation below mid 98s. Net light offers on upside.
Locally, Japan CPI release Friday, which can be a market mover for upside if it misses 0.2% ish off expectation either way.
This high 98s looks like mid of range and no man's land. I am light long USDJPY cautiously and temporarily, mainly expecting local demand as it is 25th of the month. Meanwhile, coupled with order graphics and positioning, I think there is risk for down side eventually.

NZD
Open 0.8270 Support 0.230 Resistance 0.8320

Kiwi losing some steam fast as a few technical breaks and sell flows are having an impact
Trade balance this morning came in worse than expected and its clear that the data in NZ is starting to turn
I believe NZD should underperform in coming sessions and hold a short

CAD
Open 1.0305 Support 1.0290 Resistance 1.0320

Ranges in USDCAD remain constrained and topside pain looms
I have exited my short CAD risk and will sit on my hands for now

GBP
Open 1.6002 Support 1.5960 Resistance 1.6070

Cable opens weaker this morning as RM and CORP demand yesterday was absorbed fairly well by the market. 1.5960 remains a crucial pivot for the sterling market and a break below can see further selling in the interim.
UK GDP on Thursday remains the key data point for the market this week as well as month end flows. US corp sellers should keep cable heavy in the interim now as we have fully retraced the FOMC now for sterling.

CHF
Open 0.9130 Support 0.9100 Resistance 0.9160

Was a bit of a false break in EURCHF it seems, 1.23 figure is still holding with London showing no appetite to sell beneath the figure
1.2280 now the support level in EURCHF, there were some good bids in the screens yesterday round 1.2285
USDCHF resistance now at 0.9150 - above here and it looks to fill in the gap up to 0.9230. I cannot see it doing such though unless EURUSD plows through support at 1.3450

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