Brown Moses · @Brown_Moses

19th Mar 2013 from Twitlonger

Here's my theory on the chemical attack in Syria today:

It's really difficult to be sure, but I suspect it might be a chemical leak as a result of a rocket attack, rather than a rocket with a chemical warhead, although it's extremely difficult to be certain.

One thing I've found very interesting is the reports from multiple victims of the smell of chlorine. If chlorine gas was used the amount needed to inflict that number of casualities would likely be very high. In Iraq there were a number of chlorine bombs used, and they were vehicles loaded with large amounts of chlorine, some inflicting the same number and type of casualties we've seen today:

The thing is, there's no way the DIY rockets used by the opposition could deliver that volume of gas, and the government has claimed the missile or rocket used was fired from 30km away, which seems well beyond the rebels DIY rocket making capabilities.

So that leaves the theory it was a large rocket or missile captured by the opposition, but the question is then, which weapon in the Syrian army's inventory uses chlorine based warheads? I'm pretty certain that none would, so IF it was chlorine poisoning I get the impression it's more likely something that was hit on the ground leaking gas than a chlorine warhead. Also, if it was a large missile or rocket I'd expect there would be plenty of debris for State media to show off. What would also be useful is knowing the exact location of the attack, and footage from the scene of the attack.

It should also be noted that if this does turn out to be a large missile used by the Syrian opposition than it's a significant escalation in their capabilities, and the Syrian government has lost control of some of it's chemical weapons.

But I'll stress again it's extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be certain with the scant information available.

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