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From The Sunday Times

Battle of the sexes over independence

Women are more wary of Scotland secession than men, according to latest research. Jason Allardyce investigates
Jason Allardyce Published: 22 July 2012
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A recent poll showed that it is the women that Alex Salmond needs to convince when it comes to independence for Scotland (Times)
SCOTTISH independence risks falling victim to a battle of the sexes, according to a new poll.

More men support Alex Salmond’s plans to secede from Britain than oppose them, but the nationalist dream faces defeat because a greater number of women surveyed are against the idea.

The Panelbase survey of more than 1,000 Scots for The Sunday Times and Real Radio Scotland, found that when undecided voters are excluded, a majority of men (51%) back independence. However, a larger majority of women (62%) are against it.

Political commentators say the findings reflect a more risk-averse approach among women, who fear independence could leave them financially worse off and who may view nationalism as macho.

The campaign to save the union, led by the former chancellor Alistair Darling and the pro-independence camp, believe women’s views will prove crucial in the 2014 referendum. Darling’s No camp is even planning to lobby mothers at the school gates.

Support for independence stands at 36%, while 45% are opposed and 20% of voters have not made up their minds, giving the No camp a nine-point lead, up from a five-point gap in February.

Scottish National party (SNP) strategists believe the ongoing economic downturn has dampened confidence among Scots, preventing the feelgood factor they consider necessary for voters to embrace independence. Last week, official statistics confirmed that Scotland is in the grip of a double-dip recession, which appears to particularly trouble women.

“Women are perhaps more consensual, more cautious, more worried about the family budgets while men may be less risk-averse, more macho and more tribal,” said Justine Roberts, the founder of Mumsnet.

“People always think of the women’s vote as very important because they think they’re not as entrenched in their opinion and I suppose wanting independence feels like it’s quite a tribal thing.”

John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, agrees that women are “less likely to feel confident about the prospect of independence and they are more likely to be worried about independence than men”.

However, many more women than men have not yet made up their minds. One in three women aged 18-34 (33%) is still undecided, while the most difficult to persuade group is likely to be men aged 55 and above, only 9% of whom have not reached a view.

The poll, conducted between July 11-17, also found that more Scots would prefer greater devolution of powers to the Scottish parliament, while remaining within Britain, than to leave it — an option that may be placed on the referendum ballot paper. Just over half (51%) favour extending parliament’s remit, while 25% are opposed and 24% are undecided.

However, the findings provide a glimmer of hope for Salmond, whose administration has recently been embroiled in a series of controversies, including over plans to allow gay marriage.

If full independence is placed head-to-head against more devolution and the status quo, independence proves the most popular option by a tiny margin. The options were supported by 30%, 29% and 28% respectively.

Salmond is still considering how exactly to word the referendum.

The SNP also remains far ahead of Labour in voting intentions for the Scottish parliament, more than five years after winning power.

In the constituency vote, the nationalists are on 47% Labour is on 32%, Conservatives 12%, Lib Dems 6%, and others on 4%. In the proportional representation vote, the SNP is on 46%, Labour 28%, Conservatives 11%, Greens 6%, Lib Dems 4%, and others on 4%.

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