A realistic evaluation... posted by Mik25 DK

So, youve just been dropped into Division Three, lost most of your players (with more surely to leave now) and the ones that remain are on wages unsustainable on the revenues that can be generated at that level of football - What do you do?

They have taken upon a club that was run unsustainably and have been placed in a situation where they shall be unsustainable once more. While Rangers will have a substantially higher level of income than any other club in the division, it will be lower by far than ever before.

The players who remain have to leave the club. Even the youth wages Rangers pay are far higher than the average wage in the rest of the division and it is hard to believe that any senior players can be afforded by the club.

One may compare them to Gretna. While Gretna were bankrolled by Brooks Mileson at a loss (and could be) by utilising senior journeymen (Deuchar et al) to go up the leagues, NewCo cannot run at a loss - were they to go into debt, they would not be given much leeway and they do not have a willing benefactor to take up the slack (the men behind Rangers NewCo may be wealthy, but they have shown themselves to be unwilling to commit even their identities to being associated with the club, never mind their money).

One could compare them to Leeds. However Leeds actually made money in losing their stars. Rangers simply walked out of the door as fast as they could.

One could compare them to Portsmouth. Except Portsmouth have the goodwill of most of football (aside from the guy at Fratton Park who has that bloody bell - he can get lost) behind them and no shortage of people queueing to try and help the club.

We have turned from a situation where Charles Greens unique interpretation of TUPE has gone to one where all players must go at all costs.

They have two weeks before the season starts, in which they have to sell as many season tickets as they can or resolve to simply sell tickets at the gate and just try half-season tickets.

That is not a recipe to make money, that is a recipe to lose money.

There is then the ominous spectre of BDO, who have so far remained silent. They have the power to overturn the sale to Sevco should they so wish. Its an unlikely scenario growing more improbable by the day as Rangers NewCo are shown to be unprofitable.

The question Im wondering isnt How will Rangers do? its Will Rangers even play?

Make no mistake, it is not affordable to keep any senior players on the books - the only players the club can afford in the short term are youth players and any journeymen they can find. Even then, there will have to be wage cuts. Anyone expecting Rangers to waltz through Division Three are mistaken. The very players that are all Rangers can afford right now are the very players who havent played for the first team before, who may have been out on loan in the Third last year.

When it comes to affordable players right now, Rangers have 1 keeper, 2 defenders, 2 midfielders and 1 striker on their books. I would even describe Kirk Broadfoot as an unnecessary luxury that Rangers will simply be unable to afford. They need, in the space of the next 14 days, to offload every player but those six and get cheap replacements to the tune of 10-15 players.

I hope you get the idea of how big a task is on Ally McCoists hands. The most effective tactic may, in fact, to actually abide by TUPE law and simply release everyone from their employ. After all, they are building an almost entirely new team, they may as well build an actually entirely new team.

Assuming Rangers are ready to play in 2 weeks, they will be poor. They have had no pre-season whatsoever, as everyone cancelled their friendlies. They will be strangers. When they line up for the first match as Rangers NewCo, they will lose. They could keep their best youth talents and they will still lose. It is improbable that they will be up and running at anything resembling their potential before October, by which time they could be out of two cups and well behind in the league, if one other team excels throughout the season.

And, more importantly, by which time the fans will have lost patience. Crowds will have plummeted (and will hardly be raised by Rangers slowly matching expectations) and the players, coaching staff and board wont just be under fire, there will be a full on napalm attack from fans.

Which poses a real question - what do Sevco do? That things have gotten this close to the beginning of the season make it unlikely they will be able to field a competitive side due to the mass recruitment drive required. It will be difficult, even, for them to field a full bench on the first day of the season.

Not just difficult. Improbable.

There are then policing costs, which will be just as high (if not, considering feelings in the fanbase, higher) than they were in the SPL.

There are ground maintenance costs which, as Ibrox (if we take Hampden out of the equation as Queens Park dont maintain it) is by far the biggest ground in the division AND the one requiring the most maintenance, will be just as high as they were in the SPL.

There are training costs. Murray Park didnt magically shrink in size - they will be maintaining a training facility built for Europe on much reduced revenues.

Let me be clear with the picture I am painting. Not only do I firmly believe that Rangers will be unable to field a competitive team on the first day of the season, I firmly believe that there isnt much hope (unless Rangers fans match or surpass their ability to delve into their pockets as last season) of Rangers NewCo breaking even to the extent that a second liquidation is an inevitability.

But this wont be a liquidation like the last one. This wont be one with a prelude of interest, a subtext of skullduggery, accusations and allegations flying about, with false hopes, new dawns and fan power.

This will be a liquidation of finality. This will be a club at which it is not possible to turn a profit dying because they are simply not financially viable.

This will be the end of Rangers in any form. They will be dead, buried and locked out of a league system that they fought to preserve.

Financial Armageddon? You bet, but not for who you think.

So what do Rangers do?

The only, and I mean ONLY, option they have is to lobby as hard as they can for SPL2 to be instituted in the next fortnight. This will not be lobbying, this will be based on open threats to leave the league, a refusal to play.

Rangers are worth more with Ibrox demolished and built on for housing than they are a Division Three club - unless they can rig the system so they get back into the SPL within a season (and, in all seriousness, in their financial state, they will be lucky to last a season) then the only option left for Sevco is to raze the property to the ground and build on the ashes.

And, if youre a Rangers fan, would you really want to bet against Charles Green doing exactly that?

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