Active Trading · @activetrading
30th Dec 2011 from Twitlonger
End of Year Market Thoughts: David Banister
www.markettrendforecast.com
As we come into the end of the Calendar year and end of trading year today, here are some interesting "Harmonics" relating to the SP 500:
The Nov 28th pivot low was 144 Fibonacci days from the Jul 7 pivot highs, 32 (34 Fibonacci less 2) days from the Oct 27 highs and 55 Fibonacci days from the Oct 4 lows.
The rally from Nov 28th inclusive to tomorrow will be 32 (Just like the Oct 27 top to Nov 28 low) days as well, and will be 34 Fibonacci days on Sunday. It will be 13 Fibonacci weeks from the Oct 4 lows ending today, and 8 Fibonacci trading days from Dec 20th turn as well today. Finally, Sunday will be 89 fibonacci days from the Oct 4 lows.
In addition, we are rallying up into this fibonacci harmonics window in what appears to be a light volume C wave rally, still well below my 1275/1292 pivots on the SP 500 and below the NYSE index charts I put out over last few weeks on TMTF site.
What does it all mean? It means the market is a key turning point. Will it blast up and blow my 70% bear case out of the woods or will it reverse hard down and bring the bear case to light?
With low volume today, I don't expect any big moves... but since I am working on a swing short position against the markets late this week... I will likely add to my short positions over the course of today. Then I will see what next week brings as volume comes back in.
If the SP 500 closes over 1292 then my Bear case is in trouble short term. I continue to expect a strong correction in January, and a rally after that and a top by March 7th 2012.