@astoehr @altfilmguide Cars made $244 million on a $140 million budget, and exceeded expectations. It also got good reviews - a 74% on RottenTomatoes, 80% from audiences. Shrek 2 has an 89% on RottenTomatoes and also made almost a billion dollars worldwide. People actually really liked it at the time. Cars 2, by contrast, holds a beautiful 38%, with a 59% from audiences (ouch). It's also only made $185 million domestically on a $200 million budget. What that says to me is, the movie is kind of a flop, especially by Pixar's standards.
Now, the next question is how many nominees there will be. The Academy has a minimum of three nominees, expanded if enough animated films are released in a year. I don't think enough have been, so my guess is we'll end up with three nominees.
Now, I don't think this year has been particularly strong for animated films, which may help Cars 2, but we still have the following positively-received films: Rango, Rio, Kung-Fu Panda 2, and Winnie The Pooh. All of them possible contenders. We still haven't seen the reception for Puss in Boots, Arthur Christmas, or Happy Feet 2, sequel to the previous Oscar winner.
Given all of that, I just have a hard time believing that it'll get nominated. If it does, the Academy will show a true Pixar bias that they'll have a hard time shaking. In the past, all the Pixar films that were nominated and/or won got a pretty stellar reception and arguably deserved it.
Sorry for the long-winded crap. Not trying to act pompous or anything. More trying to give you hope. :)