A really really long tweet I tried to send to @eamonnbrennan as an email, but the darn mailbag just wouldn't take it!

Hey Eamonn,
My name is Aaron Burgin, and I am a City Hall reporter from the San Diego area (I work for the Union-Tribune), and I used to be a co-worker of your compatriot Diamond Leung up at the PE. I preface my remarks with these credentials so that you don't think I am a total loon.

That said, at some point, I strongly believe that you have to mention USC in the bubble discussion.

I know, I know, I can already hear the snickers.

But quietly, the Trojans are putting together an intriguing, if not legitimate resume for at-large consideration. Peep:

Currently, the Trojans stand at 17-12, 9-7 in the Pac-10 and have won four games in a row. That's their longest winning streak of the season, and puts them in a good position entering into the last week of the season. They have a, let's call it "emerging" RPI at 75 and their SOS is a solid 45. This was prior to the victory Saturday against ASU.

Now, I know everyone says that the Pac-10 is down this season, and in some respects it is. But, the league is likely to get 3 teams in, one more than last season, and two teams will likely be in the AP or ESPN Top 25 in this week's polls, with UCLA poised to make a return. Given that set of facts, a 9-7 Pac-10 team with wins over UCLA and Arizona in league should be worth mentioning.

But it get's better for the Trojans.

According to Joe Lunardi's stats, USC has more wins and best record against the RPI top 50 (4-4) than all but a handful of at-large contenders. This includes St. Mary's and Gonzaga, and let's be honest, if you look at the schedules, SC went out and scheduled a lot tougher than the Gaels.

This leads to my next point, trying to mitigate some of USCs bad loss. Hey, everyone's gotta be a politician around this time, right?

USC does have some doozies, including 3 losses against sub 150 RPI teams, including in conference to Oregon State and losses at TCU and against Bradley in the Naismith Classic. They also got drubbed by Rider, a 21-9 team that is second in a good Metro Athletic conference behind Fairfield, and a two-point loss on the road against Nebraska and 18-win team that is fighting for an at-large berth as well. Three of these losses, however, have something in common:

They came during a dreaded 8-game-in-two-week stretch that USC Coach Kevin O'Neill should never have scheduled. USC Sports Information says it is first time USC has played such a nonconference stretch since 1983-84, which demonstrates its rigor. The three games were also prior to Jio Fontan becoming eligible, and as you know, Fontan has been a key piece for USC this season.

This week will be a make-or-break for the Trojans at-large chances. Folks around here are saying that USC has to at least split to remain in the conversation. I personally believe they need to sweep the Washington schools, which would leave them at 19-12, 11-7 in the Pac-10 and potentially in a third-place tie with Washington, which would have seemed improbable just three weeks ago. A 19-12 USC team with FIVE RPI top 50 wins (Texas, Tennessee, UCLA, Arizona and Washington) entering into the Pac-10 tournament HAS to be in the discussion, no doubt about it. Even an 18-13, 10-8 team with four RPI top 50 wins should be at least on the fringe of the conversation.

Now, I know most of the spotlight with ESPN is on the Big East and Big 10, and deservedly so. The teams in those conferences have played well. But I know that after watching USC this year, and seeing them finally play consistent basketball, no team in the country wants to see them in a neutral court setting. They play incredible defense, and have arguably the nation's best individual defender in Marcus Simmons (I'm not saying this because O'Neill said it, I've been saying this for two years after he locked up Jerome Randle, Darren Collison, James Harden, Tyrese Rice and Kailin Lucas in a two week stretch back in 2009) and are undefeated at 12-0 when they hold teams to under 40 percent shooting. They also have perhaps the most under-the-radar NBA prospect you would find at this point in the season in Nikola Vucevic, who is putting up POY numbers. Just check the stats, they are incredible. USC does lack elite depth and struggle at times against the zone, but the last two teams to play zone against them were the Arizona schools. Didn’t work out too well for them, did it?

Again, I know you have a tough job whittling through the email bag and sifting through the kooks and not-so-kooks. I am in the latter class. Please, take my response seriously.

Best,
Aaron D. Burgin
The U-T

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